Monsoon Season Discussion

Weather Bus.com — August 13, 2008, 7:26 am

7:25am: Showers Move Through

An area of light to moderate showers is moving through the area this morning, with the rain total as of 7:25am, being 0.02in..

Additional showers are possible over the next hour or two, with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Weather Bus.com — August 9, 2008, 5:40 pm

Converging Outflows Again?

Latest Doppler Radar imagery shows three separate outflows making there way into the valley. One was moving up from the south, currently located from just south of Florence stretching westward toward Santan. A second was moving in from the west, and currently moving through Glendale. The third and final outflow was moving down from the north, and was located near Fountain Hills.

While these outflows are weaker than what was seen on Thursday, which allowed strong to severe thunderstorms to developed across the valley, they still have the potential to interact with each other, leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening, especially with the fairly moist atmosphere in the area this afternoon.

Over the next hour or so, these outflow boundaries will need to be watched closely.

Weather Bus.com — August 7, 2008, 8:10 pm

8:10pm: Thunderstorms Continue

Thunderstorms continue to move/develop across the region, resulting in strong winds, heavy rainfall and small hail. Storms will likely continue well into the evening hours.

Stay tuned to your favorite local media source or the National Weather Service.

Weather Bus.com — , 7:12 pm

7:10: T-Storms Just S Of Gold Canyon

Thunderstorms have developed just to the south of Gold Canyon, along an outflow boundary moving to the north. These storms and additional storms may move into the region over the next hour or so.

Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, strong winds and hail.

Weather Bus.com — , 6:49 pm

6:50pm: Thunderstorms Forming

Latest Doppler Radar indicates thunderstorms are developing along and just behind an outflow boundary between Florence Junction and Queen Creek. Thunderstorms were almost stationary but additional development along this outflow boundary, moving to the north, is possible over the next hour.

Another outflow, moving toward the SE, has been generated by a severe thunderstorm near Cave Creek.

As discussed in our last post, outflow interactions over the next one to two hours will need to be watched very closely.

Weather Bus.com — , 6:27 pm

Thunderstorms This Evening?

Latest Doppler Radar imagery indicates several outflows moving toward/into the valley from the WNW, S and SE. These should be watched closely over the next couple hours to see if any of these interact with one another resulting in additional thunderstorm development within the area.

With a somewhat unstable and fairly moist atmosphere any lifting mechanism, such as a converging outflow, has the potential to generate thunderstorms, some which could contain heavy rainfall and strong winds.

Weather Bus.com — August 3, 2008, 5:42 pm

5:45pm: Strong T-Storms E; Strong Winds

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along the higher terrain to the north and east of the area. These storms were generally moving to the west southwest. The strongest storms, at the time of this post, were located in the Globe/Miami region, as well as near Roosevelt.

Latest Doppler Radar indicates the strong thunderstorm near Globe has produced an outflow which was moving to the west, toward the area. This outflow will likely move through the area later this afternoon resulting in gusty winds. This outflow could also allow additional thunderstorms to form in and around the area later this afternoon/evening.

Be sure to monitor the weather regularly over the next several hours via your favorite media outlet or the National Weather Service.

Weather Bus.com — , 5:33 pm

Mesoscale Discussion - Severe Threat

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a mesoscale discussion for the region, regarding the possibility of thunderstorms producing strong (possibly severe) gusty winds over the next several hours. For more information, please refer to the graphic and discussion below:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN AZ…EXTREME SWRN NM.

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032309Z - 040145Z

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ…AND SHOULD MOVE WSWWD TO SWWD OVER LOWER DESERTS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WW ISSUANCE NOT LIKELY SOON…WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF WW FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING NWD ACROSS SWRN NM. VIS/REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS ALSO INDICATE MESOBETA SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NWWD OVER SWRN AZ TOWARD BLH AREA. THESE FEATURE ARE NOT RESOLVED WELL BY RUC…AND NM LOW IS TOO FAR E FOR WRN PARTS OF ITS CIRCULATION TO BE RESOLVED BY AZ VWP DATA. ALTHOUGH VWP SHOWS WEAK/ERRATIC FLOW BELOW ABOUT 500 MB E OF SWRN AZ PERTURBATION…PRIND STRONGER/DEEPER NELYS EXIST JUST E OF PHX-TUS CORRIDOR TOWARD NM BORDER…SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE FARTHER SWWD TOWARD ERN PORTIONS PIMA/PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES. AMALGAMATED OUTFLOWS SHOULD MOVE INTO WELL HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN DRY ADIABATIC IN SOME LOCALES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR…ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT…MAY BE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LIMITING EFFECTS OF ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ON BUOYANCY PROFILES. STILL…MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPES SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO MID 60S F…FROM VICINITY SRN GREENLEE COUNTY AZ NWWD TOWARD SERN YAVAPAI COUNTY…IMMEDIATELY W OF ONGOING ACTIVITY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2008

Weather Bus.com — , 3:52 pm

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms - Moving In?

Latest Doppler Radar and satellite imagery shows strong to severe thunderstorms have developed in the high country to the north and east of the valley, as well as locations to our southeast. The strongest storms are currently to the east of Globe, and were generally moving to the southwest.

Over the next few hours these storms will need to be watched closely, to see if they continue to move/develop closer to the area. With moist conditions and plenty of daytime heating, there is a chance of thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the area later this afternoon and evening.

Weather Bus.com — July 26, 2008, 6:51 pm

6:50pm: Severe Thunderstorm / Strong Outflow

A severe thunderstorm around Gilbert and Higley at 6:25pm, has produced a strong outflow moving to the ENE. This outflow could bring gusty winds to the area within the next hour, along with the possibility of additional thunderstorms developing. The image below is the Base Velocity taken at 6:25pm, showing the strong downburst which produced this strong outflow.

Keep a close eye on the radar over the next hour or two to see where thunderstorms form.

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